Estimating Causal Effects from Family Planning Health Communication Campaigns Using Panel Data: The “Your Health, Your Wealth” Campaign in Egypt

BACKGROUND Health communication campaigns - involving mass media and interpersonal communication - have long been utilized by national family planning programs to create awareness about contraceptive methods, to shift social norms related to fertility control, and to promote specific behaviors, such as the use of condoms, injectable methods or permanent sterilization. However, demonstrating the effectiveness of these campaigns is often complicated because the infeasibility of experimental designs generally yields statistically non-equivalent samples of campaign-exposed and unexposed individuals. METHODS Using data from a panel survey of reproductive age women in Egypt, we estimate the effects of the multimedia health communication campaign "Your Health, Your Wealth" ("Sahatek Sarwetek") on precursors to contraceptive use (e.g., spousal communication, birth spacing attitudes) and on modern contraceptive use. Difference-in-differences and fixed effects estimators that exploit the panel nature of the data are employed to control for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the sample of women who self-report recall of the messages, thereby potentially improving upon methods that make no such controls or that rely solely on cross-sectional data. FINDINGS All of the estimators find positive effects of the "Your Health, Your Wealth" campaign on reproductive health outcomes, though the magnitudes of those effects diverge, often considerably. Difference-in-differences estimators find that exposure to the campaign increases the likelihood of spousal discussions by 14.4 percentage points (pp.) (SE= .039, p<0.001) but has no effect on contraceptive use. In contrast, the fixed effects, instrumental variables estimator, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, finds a large, statistically significant effect on modern contraceptive use (27.4 pp., SE=0.135, p=0.043). CONCLUSIONS The difficulties of evaluating family planning communication programs may be surmountable using panel data and analytic methods that address both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in exposure. Not controlling for such effects may lead to substantial underestimates of the effectiveness of such campaigns.